The Case for Systematic Decision-Making
“If you do fundamental trading one morning you feel like a genius, the next day you feel like an idiot….by 1998 I decided we would go 100% models…we slavishly follow the model. You do whatever it [the model] says no matter how smart or dumb you think it is. And that turned out to be a wonderful business.”
This quote, from Jim Simons, founder of the world’s most successful hedge fund, Renaissance Technologies, demonstrated the utility of systematic decision-making in an MIT video.
The urge to use our judgment throughout the investing process is strong. I argue that, while investors need human experts to design models, they should let computers be in charge of applying those models and fight the urge to use their judgment in the implementation process. “Gut-based,” or discretionary, stock pickers certainly have a compelling story: Invest countless hours in research, identify investment opportunities and profit from the hard work. Stock pickers, however, rely on the false premise that “countless hours of being busy” adds value in the context of investment management. The empirical evidence on the subject of systematic versus discretionary decision-making is abundantly clear: Models beat experts. In fact, the late Paul Meehl, one of the great minds in the field of psychology, describes the body of evidence on the “models versus experts” debate as the only controversy in social science with “such a large body of qualitatively diverse studies coming out so uniformly in the same direction.”
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