Tortoriello's Quantitative Strategies
by John Bajkowski
Richard Tortoriello explores a quantitative approach to investing in his book “Quantitative Strategies for Achieving Alpha” (McGraw-Hill, 2009). Tortoriello felt that most popular books by investment gurus explored the qualitative side of picking stocks, while quantitative academic studies were not always practical or useful. Tortoriello outlines the process he employed and presents four of the more successful strategies in this issue. He lays out a screen that investors can use that covers the basics of valuation, cash flow, profitability and price momentum. This issue’s First Cut applies that screen using AAII’s stock screening and fundamental database, Stock Investor Pro.
The starting universe of 1,943 stocks for this issue’s First Cut consisted of domestic, exchange-listed companies with a share price above two dollars and a market cap above $422 million—mirroring the starting universe Tortoriello used for his testing.
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Tortoriello used a cumulative screening approach when building multi-factor portfolios for his test. In a cumulative approach, the first factor would have the greatest impact on the resulting portfolio, with successive factors having less and less influence. Fortunately, Tortoriello provides a standard intersection set of filtering variables that can be used by most screening programs in his AAII Journal article on page 23. After establishing the starting universe, the First Cut looked for stocks with a ratio of enterprise value to EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of eight or less, a cash ROIC (free cash flow to invested capital) of 12% or greater, return on equity of 18% or greater and a 52-week price range of 82% or greater. These variables are defined and explained in Tortoriello’s main article in this issue. Twenty-seven companies passed the all the filters, and they are presented below, ranked in ascending order by enterprise value to EBITDA. The First Cut listing also presents the 52-week high and low to underscore the range of prices for these stocks over the last year as well as the market cap to judge the size of these firms.
|
Enterprise Value to EBITDA (X) |
Cash ROIC (%) |
Return on Equity (%) |
52-Wk Price Range (%) |
Share Price (4/16) ($) |
52-Week |
Market Cap ($ Mil) |
Description | ||
|
High ($) |
Low ($) |
||||||||
| Company (Exchange: Ticker) | |||||||||
| Constellation Energy Group (N: CEG) | 1.1 | 20.9 | 91.6 | 90 | 36.98 | 38.73 | 21.40 | 7,436 | energy servs |
| Clearwater Paper Corp (N: CLW) | 2.8 | 40.1 | 63.2 | 89 | 54.31 | 59.90 | 9.66 | 623 | tissue & paper prods |
| KapStone Paper & Pkg Co. (N: KS) | 3.9 | 36.6 | 29.9 | 97 | 12.79 | 13.10 | 2.50 | 581 | kraft & carton board |
| Boise Inc. (N: BZ) | 4.3 | 27.1 | 29.0 | 95 | 7.09 | 7.41 | 0.61 | 599 | paper & packaging |
| Buckeye Technologies Inc. (N: BKI) | 5.1 | 14.8 | 40.1 | 92 | 14.34 | 15.31 | 3.00 | 556 | specialty fiber prods |
| P.H. Glatfelter Company (N: GLT) | 5.6 | 18.4 | 29.6 | 99 | 15.00 | 15.05 | 6.40 | 686 | specialty paper prods |
| Ticketmaster Entertainment (M: TKTM) | 6.0 | 13.2 | 19.5 | 96 | 15.40 | 15.89 | 3.42 | 884 | ticket sales |
| Advanced Micro Devices (N: AMD) | 6.1 | 13.5 | 953.2 | 94 | 9.81 | 10.24 | 3.17 | 6,596 | semiconductors |
| Allegiant Travel Company (M: ALGT) | 6.6 | 31.8 | 46.5 | 90 | 56.56 | 59.04 | 33.20 | 1,126 | leisure travel |
| Aeropostale, Inc. (N: ARO) | 6.6 | 64.6 | 53.7 | 94 | 30.59 | 31.26 | 19.10 | 2,882 | casual apparel |
| Innophos Holdings, Inc. (M: IPHS) | 6.9 | 28.5 | 22.0 | 91 | 28.33 | 29.88 | 12.98 | 606 | phosphates |
| Kirkland's, Inc. (M: KIRK) | 6.9 | 52.7 | 46.9 | 95 | 23.85 | 24.76 | 5.43 | 472 | home décor |
| Amtrust Financial Services (M: AFSI) | 6.9 | 21.1 | 20.8 | 86 | 13.92 | 14.84 | 8.34 | 826 | insurance |
| CEC Entertainment, Inc. (N: CEC) | 6.9 | 15.2 | 36.0 | 96 | 39.25 | 39.87 | 24.69 | 871 | dining centers |
| Freeport-McMoRan Cpr & Gld (N: FCX) | 7.1 | 18.2 | 55.9 | 82 | 81.18 | 90.55 | 38.00 | 34,953 | copper & gold mining |
| Endo Pharmaceuticals (M: ENDP) | 7.2 | 17.8 | 20.9 | 82 | 23.22 | 24.85 | 15.75 | 2,723 | pharmaceuticals |
| Big Lots, Inc. (N: BIG) | 7.3 | 31.3 | 22.6 | 98 | 39.59 | 40.05 | 19.49 | 3,183 | closeout retailer |
| Raytheon Company (N: RTN) | 7.4 | 19.6 | 20.4 | 97 | 58.32 | 58.87 | 40.75 | 22,108 | defense contractor |
| Amedisys, Inc. (M: AMED) | 7.6 | 22.7 | 20.4 | 90 | 60.52 | 64.28 | 28.32 | 1,712 | home health servs |
| Lubrizol Corporation (N: LZ) | 7.6 | 23.5 | 27.6 | 90 | 90.63 | 96.48 | 36.46 | 6,171 | specialty chemicals |
| Neustar, Inc (N: NSR) | 7.8 | 29.1 | 27.3 | 95 | 26.32 | 26.73 | 18.27 | 1,960 | phone call routing |
| Gymboree Corporation (M: GYMB) | 7.8 | 31.2 | 25.4 | 88 | 52.23 | 55.27 | 29.00 | 1,538 | kids' apparel & play |
| EZCORP, Inc. (M: EZPW) | 7.8 | 16.0 | 19.5 | 93 | 21.39 | 22.23 | 10.00 | 1,042 | credit servs |
| Deckers Outdoor Corp. (M: DECK) | 7.8 | 35.0 | 27.2 | 91 | 136.00 | 144.22 | 48.70 | 1,751 | footwear |
| Gap Inc., The (N: GPS) | 7.9 | 32.6 | 23.0 | 96 | 25.00 | 25.40 | 14.38 | 16,686 | apparel retailer |
| LHC Group, Inc. (M: LHCG) | 7.9 | 17.7 | 37.3 | 94 | 35.57 | 36.52 | 19.79 | 662 | health care servs |
| Sanderson Farms, Inc. (M: SAFM) | 8.0 | 28.0 | 25.2 | 95 | 58.37 | 59.43 | 36.09 | 1,190 | poultry processing |
| Exchange Key: M=NASDAQ; N=New York Stock Exchange. | |||||||||
| Source: Morningstar.com; AAII's Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters, and I/B/E/S. Data as of 4/16/2010. | |||||||||
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Discussion
In his book he uses a number of screening strategies where he combines 2 and 3 factors and then backtests the results. The strategy with the lowest Max Loss and a High Return 21.3% was a simple 2 factor model of EBIT/Invested Capital >35% & FCF/Mkt Cap > 7%.
It would be nice if AAII included at least this single strategy with the other Stock Screens that it provided on-going results on.
Greg Morgan
posted about 1 year ago by Gregory from Texas
Greg's idea sounds good to me. Quantatative strategies require less oversight on an individual company basis, but probably require more frequent rebalancing of the portfolio. Since the quantative screen here is primarily based on fundamentals, it might be possible to rebalance quarterly and achieve pretty good results. I have not read the book yet.
posted about 1 year ago by James from Tennessee
Tortoriello's quantitative strategy results should be added to the stock screens' roster.
posted about 1 year ago by Norman from Rhode Island
Would it be possible to add this screen to the permanent stock screens that AAII tracks and runs.
posted about 1 year ago by Greg from Texas
How long does AAII wait before one of their reviewed method strategists makes the standard list of the AAII Stock Screening tool? This one, Tortoriello, seems like a good candidate.
posted about 1 year ago by Dave from Colorado
Dave, Thanks for the request to the add Tortoriello to Stock Investor Pro. Adding new screens is a programming issue, but we are monitoring requests to add the screen to SI Pro. -Charles Rotblut
posted about 1 year ago by Charles from Illinois
