Stocks Gone Wild and Other April Charts of Interest

Investors’ appetite for risk has been rising even though the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. We have been observing a rotation into growth stocks, but some investors—speculators is a better word—have chosen to take on far more risk, as I explain this week. I then turn the focus of this month’s charts of interest to stock and bond correlations, gasoline prices and, finally, a reminder of why investment expenses still matter.

As a reminder, the monthly charts of interest highlights charts and tables I’ve come across that have not made their way into other AAII commentaries.

How Much Is That Rental Car?!

Shares of Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR) ended Tuesday, April 22, up 390% month to date, before pulling back yesterday and today. The surge is being attributed to a short squeeze. A short squeeze is a run-up in a stock’s price that is intensified when short sellers buy shares to close out their positions. Short squeezes occur because the potential losses from holding a short position are unlimited.

According to Barron’s and other media outlets, about 71% of the company is owned by SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital Management combined. This has led to a relatively small float: the number of Avis Budget shares available for trading. The actual number may be even smaller than the listed 10.2 million float. The two firms reportedly hold derivatives that push their combined ownership above 100%.

Beyond this, there is not an identifiable catalyst for the stock’s run-up. Avis Budget filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on March 27 to sell up to five million shares. That is about 14% of its currently outstanding shares.

Whenever a stock experiences this level of volatility, attempting to trade it is very risky.

Source: AAII.com. Data from QuoteMedia as of 4/22/2026.

“We’re Switching From Shoes to AI”

Shares of Allbirds Inc. (BIRD) had their own recent spike. The reason? Allbirds is switching from making and selling casual shoes—a business it was unsuccessful at—to renting out artificial intelligence (AI) computing power under the name NewBird AI.

The speculators who jumped into the stock in response to the announcement are already tripping over their shoelaces. As for me, I’m happy to hold onto my Allbirds sneakers while continuing to avoid the stock.

Source: AAII.com. Data from QuoteMedia as of 4/22/2026.

Bonds Have Become More Correlated to Stocks

Bonds have historically been suggested as diversifiers to stocks because the two have had negative to near-zero correlation. The relationship has changed so far this decade. Bonds have become positively correlated to stocks, according to investment firm AQR Capital Management.

Even at the current correlation levels, bonds still provide diversification benefits relative to stocks. The extent of this diversification depends on both the size of the allocation to bonds and how you get exposure to bonds. Holding individual bonds or defined-maturity bond funds will provide certainty of return. Owning a traditional bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) or mutual fund will expose you to more of the elevated correlation because their future returns are not certain.

Prices at the Pump Lag Wholesale Gasoline Prices

Gas prices remain high across the country due to the Iran war. Even once the Strait of Hormuz is finally reopened, there will be a delay before we see relief. This is partially because prices at the pump lag wholesale prices, as this chart from The New York Times shows.

A friendly reminder not to direct your anger at the owner of your local gas station. They have very little control over prices.

Finally, a Reminder that Fund Expenses Matter

The only part of returns that investors have control over is costs. The higher the fees you pay, the higher the return you must realize just to break even with a lower-cost alternative.

Vanguard reminded investors of this in its new report, “50 years. 50 facts. Indexing since 1976.”

AAII Stock Bracket Challenge Championship Recap

The championship round of the AAII Stock Bracket Challenge went from being a rout to a nail-biter. Thirteenth seed JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) got the better of 11th seed Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) in terms of returns for the final week, after the latter went cold down the stretch.

Timing was a factor. Alphabet had a higher total return than JPMorgan over the entire challenge period.

We also saw the element of timing play out in the four-week returns for all 16 stocks included in the tournament. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), the third-most-favorited stock among AAII members, had the biggest overall gain at 20.6%. Like a college team basketball team whose shooting goes cold at the wrong time, Amazon was knocked out of the tournament early.

Both Alphabet and Amazon are great examples of how arbitrary time periods influence the reported performance numbers. One of the biggest advantages we individual investors have is never having to report our quarterly or annual performance.

Congratulations to Jim’s bracket for winning the challenge—and receiving a lifetime subscription to AAII Platinum. Second-place winner MyShots and third-place winner Dave’s EZ pick are receiving three- and one-year AAII Platinum subscriptions, respectively. Congratulations to the two of you as well. Thank you to the more than 800 AAII members who participated.