We’re Improving Our Website
by Charles Rotblut | March 07, 2019
Earlier this week, we made changes to AAII.com. They are the first phase of planned improvements. We are not only making the website easier to navigate but are in the process of adding new features to it.
Our process of improving AAII.com will be incremental. Some of the changes will be small, while others will be more significant. It will be a multi-step process. In this first step, which helps lay the groundwork for the big enhancements planned to be launched this summer, we focused on the website’s navigation while also adding comprehensive market data.
Since we have a content-rich website, I’m going to review the newly named sections to help you get more out of AAII.com:
• Updates—This replaces our former blog and features the latest commentary from us. You’ll find the latest results of our Sentiment Survey and Asset Allocation Survey, as well as be able to participate in our weekly Member Question. This weekly Investor Update commentary can also be found in this new section.
• AAII Journal—The most current issue and online bonus features can be found here. I’d also encourage you take advantage of our large archive, with full issues dating back to January 1996.
• Markets—We’ve completely redesigned this page. In addition to market headlines, you can now find daily price change information for a large number of indexes, see the most actively traded stocks as well as those with the biggest price increase/decrease and view exchange rates for the world’s leading currencies.
• Shadow Stocks—This section has been renamed from “Model Portfolios.” It features our small-company, deep-value Model Shadow Stock Portfolio. You can also see a list of stocks currently meeting the strategy’s buy criteria and find guidance on how to follow the strategy.
• Stock Ideas—Our nearly 60 stock screening strategies can help you find a stock with the characteristics you desire. These approaches are based on both famous investing gurus (Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, T. Rowe Price, William O’Neil, etc.) and factors (quantitative criteria associated with outperformance, such as positive earnings estimate revisions).
• Investing—You will find a wealth of helpful guidance for making better investment decisions here, including our Investor Guides, Investor Classroom and articles for getting started. The My Portfolio tracker—which we will be improving upon later this year—can be found here too.
• Events—AAII Events allow you to listen to and interact with some of the brightest professionals in the world of investing. You’ll also be able to meet your fellow AAII members through our popular Investor Conference (registration is now open for the 2019 conference) and Local Chapter meetings.
• Free Reports—Want to learn more about investing? AAII members have access to our timeless “A Lifetime Strategy for Investing,” “How to Win With a Small Cap/Value Approach” and “Profitable Retirement Planning” guides.
• Premium Services—Want even more? Our premium newsletters—Stock Superstars Report, AAII Dividend Investing and VMQ Stocks—give you access to actively managed portfolios. You’ll get to see how the strategies are implemented in real-money portfolios and get notified whenever stocks are added or removed. Our Stock Investor Pro stock screening and database program gives you the ability to both customize our guru and factor screens as well as create your own strategies.
If you have comments about our website, including the changes we made this week, please respond to this email. We do consider feedback from members when making changes.
As I said above, we’re working on improving AAII.com even further. In the pipeline are additional tools, data and resources to help you become an even better manager of your assets. Stay tuned.
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The Individual Investor’s Guide to Personal Tax Planning 2018 – The deadline for filing taxes is now less than six weeks away. Our tax guide can help you make sense of the new law.
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Best of the AAII Journal – This list features some of the most popular articles published in the AAII Journal.
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices rebounded but remains below average. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows declines in bullish and neutral sentiment.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 4.2 percentage points to 37.4%. Optimism was last lower on February 13, 2019 (35.1%). The historical average is 38.5%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, pulled back by 2.5 percentage points to 35.9%. During the last six weeks, neutral sentiment has fluctuated within a range of 35.3% to 39.8%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the seventh time in nine weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded by 6.7 percentage points to 26.7%. The increase was not large enough to prevent pessimism from staying below its historical average of 30.5% for the fifth consecutive week.
As noted above, the rebound in bearish sentiment followed what was an unusually low reading last week. At current levels, all three indicators are within their historical ranges.
This year’s rebound in stock prices has encouraged some individual investors, though others have concerns about its sustainability. Many individual investors are monitoring trade negotiations, and the tempering of tensions may be having an impact on sentiment. Also having an influence are Washington politics (including President Trump and Democratic control of the House of Representatives), corporate earnings, the Federal Reserve, valuations and concerns about the pace of economic growth.
Given the 10th anniversary of the bottom of the 2007–2009 bear market, this week’s special question asked AAII members how worried they were about another severe bear market occurring within the next few years. Nearly two out of five respondents (39%) describe themselves as being worried about a big drop occurring. High levels of public and private debt, the duration of the current bull market, trade policies and politics (both domestic and global) are cited as reasons why. Slightly more than 15% of respondents think the next market drop will not be as severe as what occurred during the financial crisis while 7% anticipate a recession, particularly after the 2020 elections. Nearly 23% are not worried about a significant drop occurring.
Here is a sampling of the responses:
- “Very worried. The debt of the government and companies is too high. The economy will crash eventually.”
- “I am not very worried. I expect a downturn, but not a severe one.”
- “I am not worried. The economy is in pretty good shape and the Federal Reserve is taking a wait and see approach.”
- “I doubt there will be as severe of a bear market, but I do expect that slow growth and a mild recession could easily happen.”
- “Moderately. The presidential election cycle causes uncertainty and a 10-year-old bull won’t need much to get derailed.”
Bullish: 37.4%, down 4.2 points
Neutral: 35.9%, down 2.5 points
Bearish: 26.7%, up 6.7 points
Bullish: 38.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 30.5%
February 28, 2019 Warren Buffett Deemphasizes Book Value as a Key Metric
February 21, 2019 Avoiding Overconfidence by Knowing What Type of Investor You Are
February 14, 2019 Your Returns May Be Anything but Average
February 7, 2019 Some Perspective on Buybacks Given Recent Criticism
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