August Charts of Interest: 30-Year Bonds Make Headlines

“There is an old saying: The bond market is supposed to be quiet, and it is a big deal when it is not,” wrote Arun Sundaram of CFRA Research at the start of his weekly U.S. Investment Policy Notes email. Since the long end of the bond market has certainly not been quiet, this month’s charts of interest starts by looking at yields on the 30-year Treasury bond for a second consecutive month. We then look at the volatility within the S&P 500 index, bullish earnings guidance, investor returns from risky exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the higher cost of flying.

As a reminder, the charts of interest highlight charts and tables I’ve come across that haven’t made their way into other AAII commentaries.

Rising Long Yields Aren’t Just a U.S. Story

Yields on the 30-year Treasury bond reached 5.31% on Tuesday, their highest level in more than two decades. The increase led Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent to announce a plan to repurchase longer-dated Treasury bonds. Yields pulled back slightly yesterday in response to the announcement, but they edged back up this morning to 5.23%.

Other developed countries have also seen yields on their long bonds rise. Here’s a chart that was posted yesterday by investment research company Hedgeye Risk Management LLC.

The S&P 500’s Constituents Are More Volatile Than the Index

The Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility index jumped above 50 in July. The index has been at or above this level only twice before in the last 10 years. “Unlike those previous panicky episodes, the key gauge of index level volatility for the S&P 500—not its individual constituents—barely budged this time,” observed Matt Phillips of Axios Markets.

(The Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility measures the expected volatility of individual stocks within the S&P 500.)

Phillips attributes last month’s spike to big hedge funds using the options market to bet against big swings in the S&P 500 index while also betting on choppiness for individual stocks. The rebound in oil prices and reaction to Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Federal Reserve chairman were also cited as reasons.

Companies Across Sectors Are Raising Their Guidance

Nearly one-third of technology companies have raised their guidance this earnings season, far above the 10- and 25-year averages. It’s not just technology companies, though. According to Bespoke Investment Group, stocks in the healthcare, real estate and industrials sectors are also raising guidance at double the historical rate.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group.

Risky ETFs and Investor Behavior Are a Bad Mix

Morningstar included new analysis in its latest Mind the Gap study: the returns realized by investors in buffer, single-stock and cryptocurrency ETFs versus the returns of the funds themselves. Shareholders of buffer funds appeared to have bought and held them—exactly what they should have done.

But the same cannot be said for those investors in the far riskier leveraged single-stock ETFs and cryptocurrency ETFs. “Leveraged single-stock ETF investors notched lofty dollar-weighted gains but still failed to top the unleveraged returns of the stocks they reference. Lastly, investors in [cryptocurrency] ETFs struggled to time their transactions, with their aggregate dollar-weighted return significantly lagging the ETFs’ aggregate total returns,” stated Morningstar managing director Jeffrey Ptak and his colleagues.

It’s More Expensive to Cram Into That Airplane Seat

“Domestic travel remains sky high compared to 2025, with the average round-trip economy ticket costing nearly $100 more in 2026,” Charles Schwab’s Liz Ann Sonders posted on X with this chart from Arbor Data Science. Unfortunately, coach seats have not gotten any bigger.

Rising jet fuel prices are primarily to blame for the higher ticket prices. Airlines are to blame for the lack of leg room.