How Future Retirees Overestimate Their Benefits

A study looked at how future retirees overestimate the benefits they will receive in retirement.


A study looked at how future retirees overestimate the benefits they will receive in retirement.

Using data from the Understanding America Study (UAS), researchers for the University of Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center studied why current retirees are dissatisfied with their retirement. Nearly half of those retirees surveyed (43%) said they would like to change some aspect of their retirement.

Specifically, there was concern about Social Security benefits among future retirees. The study found that “many individuals display high levels of uncertainty about their future retirement benefits, which may affect their retirement readiness. More than 50% of our sample of nonretirees declare they do not have a good estimate of their future Social Security benefits.” But beyond just Social Security, many people did not have a good picture of their future retirement benefits in general. Only 9% said “I know for certain how much they will be”; 41.9% said “I have a guess/estimate”; and 49.1% stated “I have no idea how much they will be.”

Even with about half of the respondents not knowing how much their Social Security benefits will be, the study found that “On average, individuals in our sample tend to overestimate the level of retirement benefits they will receive from Social Security.” The uncertainty works against those who are further away from claiming their benefits, as those who are closer to the “intended benefit claiming age” are less likely to overestimate the value of their future retirement benefits.

The study concludes that a “sizable uncertainty about future retirement benefits among nonretirees … affects wealth accumulation by workers, as a result of precautionary savings.” Since many of those in retirement wish they could change the choices they made about how to prepare for it, the researchers suggest that if people could reduce the uncertainty they have about their retirement, they would have fewer regrets once they reach retirement.

Source: “Subjective Expectations, Social Security Benefits, and the Optimal Path to Retirement,” by MarÍa J. Prados and Arie Kapteyn; University of Michigan Retirement and Disability Research Center, November 2019.

Discussion

Name from Confusion posted over 6 years ago:

Future retirees may indeed be understating their expected SS benefits, but. The question to ask is also whether future retirees are understating their needs at/during retirement. I think people should not be counting on SS benefits at all with their retirement planning, especially younger people. Personally/politically I think SS should be a true insurance policy for retirement planning failure. (That sure would wake [at least some] people up into saving and investing more during their lifetime) You don't get your homeowner's insurance premiums back if your house didn't burn down, you just keep paying premiums in the hope that it doesn't burn down. I also think that the move from Defined Benefit (company pension) to Defined Contribution (IRA/401\403-type) methods has come at a transition time when very few people understand the retirement risks they face. There may also be the assumption of many that "the government should/will take care of me." It is unlikely that young people will save enough in Defined Contribution Plans, even when augmented by SS, to satisfy their expected lifestyle in retirement, especially as people live longer. Contrary to many assumptions, especially in the initial years after retirement, retirees want/need to spend more, not less for travel, recreation, hobbies, etc. and healthcare and assisted living increases in the later years. Finally, the accepted "wisdom" that, at retirement, a retirement investment portfolio will be liquidated (and possibly run out) over time (what time?) suggests poor (investment) retirement planning. Properly invested, almost anyone has the potential in the course of their working life to accumulate a PROPERLY STRUCTURED portfolio that can actually INCREASE during retirement. The keys are proper SAVING and investment DISCIPLINE. It's not rocket science, but a portfolio should be OBJECTIVES-BASED, while most of the guidance by the investment community is performance based and product oriented. At retirement (too late) so many people look at their net worth and say "wow, I'm worth a 'lot'" until they look at the expense side and only then wonder if they have saved enough. The whole process is flawed. There's even a former financial editor and columnist for a major periodical who retired, found he/she couldn't live on his/her resources, and is now back to work writing a column on retirement planning. You can't make this stuff up.


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