Less, and More

While much of what we would like less of and more of this year is beyond our control, we can choose to be a better version of ourselves every day.

Charles Rotblut leads a class in AAII's new Essential Investing Video Course. Go to https://www.aaii.com/ves for more information and to subscribe.

This year, I want less. Less coronavirus cases and hospitalizations. Less inflation. Less supply chain issues. Less severe storms. Less bad behavior on planes.

There are some things I do want more of though. More good portfolio returns. More economic recovery. More acts of kindness from one stranger to another. (“You may say I’m dreamer, but I’m not the only one,” as John Lennon so eloquently put it.)

Many of these are, of course, beyond my and your control. We certainly do not get to choose the type of market and economic conditions that exist over our lifetimes. We can choose to be a better version of ourselves every day.

James Cloonan founded AAII in 1978 to help individual investors become more effective managers of their own assets. He believed that with the right education, information and tools, every individual investor can become a better version of their investing selves.

Though he is no longer with us (Jim would have turned 91 this month), an approach Cloonan embraced was screening for stocks based on their quantitative characteristics. The AAII Model Shadow Stock Portfolio—one of the longest-running real-world factor portfolios—is a lasting example of this. The strategy identifies stocks based on their small size, low valuation and profitability. It is a low-turnover, quantitative approach that has served individual investors well over the long run. John Bajkowski provides the latest update to the portfolio.

The AAII stock screens are another example of using quantitative strategies to identify viable stock candidates. Through the end of November, more than half of the AAII screens (34) had performance greater than the S&P 500 index.

It’s important to note that the screens themselves are not portfolios. A slight change in a stock’s quantitative characteristics (e.g., its price-earnings ratio rises 0.1 points above a screen’s maximum threshold) can cause it to no longer pass. In a real-world portfolio, we’d wouldn’t immediately sell a stock just because it no longer precisely meets our buy rules.

Where screens shine are as investment idea generators. They will often lead you to stocks possessing the traits you desire. I started using stock screens well before coming to AAII, and I remain a strong proponent of them today.

Our annual AAII stock screens update can be found here. Derek Hageman explains which screens worked really well and which ones, well, didn’t shine as brightly.

In addition to our annual stock screens review, January also brings resolutions. Perhaps you have set some of your own. I’ve got a few. Continue to avoid catching the corona-virus. (Yes, I’ve been boosted.) Don’t break any bones. (I had, shall we say, a boo-boo last year.) Use the credits my wife and I received after canceling our late March 2020 trip on Norwegian Cruise Lines. (We have a trip booked for late this year.) Complete a second marathon. (I’ll be joining 40,000 of my “closest friends” when I run the Bank of America Chicago Marathon on October 9.) Remain disciplined in terms of saving, especially for retirement.

Regardless of whether you established New Year’s resolutions or not, chances are you have financial goals you want to meet. In our PRISM Wealth-Building Academy, I’ve seen members write about ensuring they have enough money to last them throughout retirement, travel and leave inheritances, among other aspirations.

PRISM is designed to help you align your investing decisions with your goals. It provides a framework for creating a plan you can use to be a successful and disciplined investor. I walk you through the entire process so you can see how it all fits together. To create your own wealth-building plan, come join us in the PRISM Academy at www.aaii.com/learnandplan.

Finally, a follow-up to last month’s editor’s note. We are continuing to work with our printer on the paper supply issues. Many AAII members switched to digital delivery in response. Among the benefits they now receive is accessing the AAII Journal at the start of each calendar month and saving articles for future reading. They also get to take advantage of our completely redesigned AAII Journal home page (www.aaii.com/journal), which is now easier to navigate and links to associated video content. Credit for the redesign goes to our art director, Annie Prada.

To switch to digital delivery, contact Member Services at members@aaii.com, call 312-676-4307 or go https://user.aaii.com/PersonifyEbusiness/My-Account, scroll down to My Subscriptions and click “Opt Out” by AAII Journal. You’ll lessen your carbon footprint while getting more from the AAII Journal.

Wishing you a happy, healthy and prosperous new year,

Discussion

RAINER F from MA posted over 4 years ago:

Since Cloonan left we see long-term members being confronted with more and more silly surveys and Facebook-like useless chatter, with more and more 'Premium Services' and with the print version of the Journal being discontinued. I am surprised that a company can simple say "Sorry, long-term member, we have to cut services that you like, because it is best for us". You are not getting away with telling me what is 'best' for you, but not for me, the customer. You can either print a PDF of the Journal on a simple, cheap office printer on recycling paper and send it to me, or you can reimburse my 'life-long membership fee (I grant you the interest) and you will not hear from me again. Otherwise, you will.


RAINER F from MA posted over 4 years ago:

Today (1/14/22 I received the December 2021 Journal Print in my mailbox. I have it TWICE now, because I received it in the mail some days ago, because I complained about not having it received during the normal mailing period. The very same thing happened with the November print. So, you did not send it to me during the normal mailing period, but then sent it to me TWICE after I complained. All that in times you mention supply chain and cost issues around printing. Will the same happen for the Jan. 2022 print? I have a Post Office monitor on that.


JAMES S from OR posted over 4 years ago:

Love you guys! Will gladly go to digital. Keep up the good work.


ANDREW B from NY posted over 4 years ago:

Hi, I note from the recent publishing of the year-by-year model shadow stock portfolio returns that when i do a quick - and I admit approximate - calculation of average annual returns (calculated by my taking the product of annual return factors, then taking the root of that product for that number of years) for the last 10 years and last 16 years (I chose 16 years because it was fast and easy for me to take the 16th root of a product on a basic calculator), it appears that the approx risk-adjusted returns of the shadow stock portfolio for those shorter periods do not beat the S&P 500. Going forward it would be helpful to also publish returns for the last 10 years and last 15 years as this is instructional. I believe that due to increased public awareness of the historical small cap / value premium, and increased computer screening power for stocks possessing these characteristics, the small cap / value premium is much less than what it was 20 plus years ago. And those of us in retirement may not have 20 years to realize the longer term benefit of any small cap / value premium, if it still exists. Would appreciate any insights of comments. Thanks.


You need to log in as a registered AAII user before commenting.
Create an account

Log In

Get your free copy of our special report analyzing the tech stocks most likely to outperform the market.

Download the FREE Report Here: