The Valuation Playbooks of Mario Gabelli and Nancy Tengler

How one determines whether a stock is priced below its future value is subjective. Two well-known value investors discuss the valuation measures they use in this month’s issue.

Charles Rotblut leads a class in AAII's new Essential Investing Video Course. Go to https://www.aaii.com/ves for more information and to subscribe.

When buying a stock, focus first on paying a price less than what you can reasonably expect someone else to pay in the future.

This is the essence of value investing. It is a rule that also applies to other styles, including growth and technical analysis.

How one determines whether a stock is priced below its future value is subjective. In value investing, there are several approaches, all focused on comparing a company’s current valuation to some identifiable measure. Two well-known value investors discuss the valuation measures they use in this month’s issue: Mario Gabelli and Nancy Tengler.

I first met Gabelli many years ago by happenstance. I was perusing the exhibit hall at a conference, turned a corner and found myself facing him. Since then, I’ve had the opportunity to cross paths with Gabelli at a few different events, most recently at a conference in June.

Gabelli’s approach is based on Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, who emphasized the importance of buying at a margin of safety in their famous book “Security Analysis” (first published in 1934). The duo defined a margin of safety price as below a company’s liquidation value, which is the amount shareholders would receive if all of a company’s assets were sold and its debts were settled.

Gabelli differs from Graham and Dodd by considering a stock’s private market value instead of its liquidation value. Private value is what investors would pay for a publicly traded company if it were taken private or if its parts were split up.

When companies spin off segments, they provide financial data that can be used to determine the value of the segment being divested. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) data can also provide benchmarks. The selling pressure by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can temporarily push valuations of a divested business segment below its private market value. Still, determining private market value relies on making judgments that incorporate communication from a company’s management, as Gabelli explains in his article.

Tengler, whom I met for the first time earlier this year, values companies based on how their current price-to-sales (P/S) ratios compare to their historical range. It is similar to the approach used by Geraldine Weiss to value dividend stocks. Weiss compared a stock’s current dividend yield to its average high and low yields of the last seven years. Tengler looks at how much investors are paying for a unit of sales compared to the market and to the stock’s history.

Tengler considers relative dividend yield as well. In both cases, a valuation near the bottom of the historical range is desirable.

Price to sales is an easily accessible metric. It is also a ratio you can easily calculate yourself. One advantage of using sales instead of earnings is that revenues are harder to manipulate. Read our interview with Tengler.

Wealth Is Just One Part of Life Well-Being

This month’s issue features a third person many of you are familiar with, behavioral finance expert Meir Statman. I had the opportunity to catch up with him in person in June.

Statman discusses the role wealth plays in life well-being. Though—as a nonprofit organization focused on empowering individual investors—we focus on building and maintaining wealth, wealth itself is just a tool. It provides food, shelter, entertainment and independence.

Life well-being, as Statman puts it, “comes when we live satisfying lives, full of meaning and purpose.” It occurs when people are not solely focused on financial well-being but rather “accepting that it is our overall well-being in our life well-being portfolio that matters.” 

Wishing you prosperity and health,

Chuck Rotblut siganture image

Discussion

KEVIN W from IL posted almost 2 years ago:

Charles, Thank you for another fine edition of the AAII Journal. I am heartened to see that 100% of individual investors have NOT turned away from valuation to the index approach. I intend to write a short missive on the conflict between the Efficient Market Hypothesis and everyone indexing their investments for submission to a future edition of the journal. Thank you again for your efforts in keeping investing a dynamic process. Kevin G. Waspi, CFA


BARRY J from TX posted almost 2 years ago:

True enough, ALL valuations are subjective. It is a long way from Graham's subjective estimates that are needed to define the margin of safety price below the liquidation value to ... an estimate of the valuation of "private value" -- what investors WOULD pay for a publicly traded company IF it were taken private ... OR ... IF its parts were split up. Most of these transactions just add on MORE subjectivity. One of the "parts" that plays a LARGE part in any valuation process is the amount of DEBT accumulated from prior unprofitable operations. And one of the LARGE problems generated by "going private" is the LARGE amount of DEBT the acquirer puts on the balance sheet to buy the company. I am always leery of anyone I meet at conferences. A lot of conference attendees are "on the make" ... for a job ... hawking a book ... passing out resumes ... or selling something. Make that estimate to be MOST conference attendees. As much as I love dogs, I don't let stray dogs follow me home either.


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