Letters

Answering questions about Jim Cloonan's new Level3 Passive Portfolio, clarification on the IRA rollover rules, and a comment on corporate cash.

The New Level3 Passive Portfolio

Comments on “Model Fund Portfolio: Introducing the Level3 Passive Portfolio,” by James B. Cloonan, in the August 2016 AAII Journal.

The absence of a small-cap stock fund in the new Level3 Passive Portfolio is very glaring. Can you please clarify why you have excluded small-cap asset class?
— Sam Ribani from Illinois

No international. No emerging markets. Are you kidding me? Diversified? Not.
— Michael Farrell from California

James Cloonan responds:

A number of comments questioned the absence of small-cap and foreign stocks in the Level3 Passive Portfolio. There is, to my mind, a difference between a favored category of stocks and mutual funds investing in that category. I believe in the importance of micro- and small-cap stocks for individual investors. I question the ability of mutual funds to invest in them successfully. The cost of investing significant funds and the difficult behavior during fast markets hinders fund managers, and the few funds that manage to overcome these problems stay small and are closed.

Over the long run, foreign stocks as a group provide lower returns, and for the long-term investor I feel that there is no significant reduction in real risk. See my book “Investing at Level3” (www.level3investing.com) for more in-depth discussion on these issues.

 

On Corporate Redistribution of Cash

Comment on “Analyzing a Stock by Its Dividend and Shareholder Yield,” by Charles Rotblut, CFA, in the August 2016 AAII Journal.

Stocks are pieces of paper with perceived values. The only way to realize a positive return is to receive cash during ownership in the form of dividends and to receive cash when stock is sold for a capital gain. Everything else, including annualized return, buyback yield, stockholder yield, return of capital, etc., is a perception or outright manipulation.

Use of cash to repurchase shares is a way of increasing earnings per share without improving company operating performance. There seems to be an increased use of borrowed money to fund stock repurchases. This appears very risky and potentially damaging as it substitutes a discretionary action—stock repurchases—with a nondiscretionary action—debt repayment obligation—without improving company performance.

If corporate management wants to reward shareholders, they should distribute cash as regular or special dividends or use cash effectively in operations to be industry leaders in sales and operating margins.
—Dwight Dow from Hawaii

 

Clarification to IRA Rollover Rules

Response to questions on “IRA Rollover Chart: Rules Regarding Rollovers and Conversions,” by Charles Rotblut, CFA, in the July 2016 AAII Journal.

We contacted the IRS to get additional clarification on the rules regarding IRA rollovers and transferring a portion of an account’s assets to another brokerage firm. Here is what they said:

The only thing that triggers the one-per-year restriction on IRA rollovers is a “rollover,” which is the distribution of funds to the IRA owner followed by a contribution within 60 days to another IRA. A trustee-to-trustee transfer—which, by the way, can be accomplished by giving a check, made payable to the receiving IRA custodian, to the IRA owner for delivery to that custodian—is not a rollover, although the term is used to describe any movement of funds between plans and IRAs. Sometimes the term “60-day rollover” is used to distinguish a real rollover from a trustee-to-trustee transfer.

The article has been updated on AAII.com to reflect this clarification.

 

Correction

Correction on “Using the Z-Score to Assess the Risk of Bankruptcy,” an interview with Edward Altman, in the July 2016 AAII Journal.

The instructions for creating the Z Double Prime Score on AAII.com initially listed an incorrect expression for creating the Z-Score D custom field in AAII’s Stock Investor Pro fundamental stock screening and research database. The correct expression for the custom field is:

[Book value/share Q1]*[Shares Average Q1])/([Total liabilities Q1)

Discussion

Marvin Warren from MT posted over 9 years ago:

Regarding Level3 investing: 1. Other respected observers (e.g. the Honorable Sir Jack of Bogle) have estimated that future equity returns will be only half of what Mr. Cloonan thinks they "should" be. 2.There is a mutual fund (INDEX) that equal-weights the S&P 500 like RSP. Fee supposedly 0.30. So, an alternative that might work better for some people. 3. Mr. Cloonan advises in the book to perhaps not invest when the market is at all-time highs, as it is now. What is his advice to those who have long term funds to invest now? I would be interested in anyone's comments on the above points.


James Garner, physicist from FL posted over 9 years ago:

On page 212 second paragraph of Level 3 the author wrote he is not aware of a predictor of market collapses. I suggest there might be a predictor in Shiller's CAPE graph and the Buffett curve of Total Market Cap/GDP. These may be found at gurufocus.com for free and they are updated daily. Just go to the market tab on their homepage. Both graphs suggest US stock are highly valued at the moment, although one might argue the overvaluation is not as extreme as these graphs suggest since we also have historically low interest rates? Eight years into a bull market makes me nervous-- I have a higher cash allocation than ever in my life. (BTW gurufocus also gives Buffett's allocation.)


Fernando Robles from FL posted over 9 years ago:

"Use of cash to repurchase shares is a way of increasing earnings per share without improving company operating performance..."—Dwight Dow from Hawaii. This is probably true from an accounting perspective, but there's a couple of other reasons I can think of for share repurchases. Share repurchases decrease the supply of available stock of a company, thus making the remaining shares more valuable for shareholders. Also, if the company repurchasing stock also pays dividends, then the dividends on the repurchased shares won't be paid anymore. If the repurchases are made using funds borrowed at a rate lower than the dividend yield, then the cash flow from the transaction would be positive. Furthermore, if the interest paid on the borrowed funds is tax-deductible, then there are further cashflow benefits from share repurchases using borrowed cash. I like to think that corporate managers know what they are doing, in general.


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