What do individual investors think the market will do next?
The AAII Sentiment Survey polls individual investors each week. Cast your vote, track the data, and use extreme readings as a contrarian signal.
Sentiment this week
The AAII Sentiment Survey offers insight into the opinions of individual investors by asking them their thoughts on where the market is heading in the next six months and has been doing so since 1987. This market sentiment data is compiled and depicted below for individual use.
Investor sentiment is measured with a weekly survey conducted from Thursday at 12:01 a.m. until Wednesday at 11:59 p.m. Tracking sentiment gives investors a forward-looking perspective of the market instead of relying on historical data, which tends to result in hindsight bias.
How the survey works
Running continuously since 1987, it's one of the longest-running investor sentiment datasets in finance.
One question, every week
Each week AAII asks: will the market be higher, lower, or about the same in six months? Voting runs Thursday through Wednesday.
Results published Thursday
Aggregated results go live each Thursday morning on AAII.com and are picked up by Barron's and major financial outlets.
Used as a contrarian signal
Extreme readings — unusually high bearishness or bullishness — have historically preceded market reversals in the opposite direction.
Ready to go deeper than the weekly number?
Every paid plan includes full AAII membership. Choose based on how you want to use sentiment data.
- ✓ Weekly bull/bear/neutral reading
- ✓ Bull–bear spread vs. historical avg
- ✓ Brief analysis from AAII editors
- ✓ Delivered every Thursday morning
No account required. Unsubscribe anytime.
- ✓ Everything in the free email
- ✓ 10+ sentiment signals (retail + institutional)
- ✓ Full historical dataset back to 1987
- ✓ Contrarian indicator analysis
- ✓ AAII stock screens & model portfolios
- ✓ AAII Journal — 40+ years of research
30-day money-back guarantee.
- ✓ Everything in Sentiment Investing
- ✓ A+ Stock Grades & Investor Hub
- ✓ All premium newsletters & strategies
- ✓ VMQ Stocks, Stock Superstars Report
- ✓ Growth & Retirement Investing newsletters
- ✓ Priority member services
30-day money-back guarantee.
What is the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey?
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey is a weekly poll conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors that measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, or neutral on the U.S. stock market over the next six months. AAII has conducted the survey continuously since 1987, making it one of the longest-running investor sentiment datasets in existence. Results are published every Thursday on AAII.com and in Barron's magazine.
Each week, AAII members are asked a single question: “Do you feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral), or down (bearish)?” The simplicity of the question — and the consistency of its methodology over nearly four decades — is what makes the survey a trusted benchmark for tracking shifts in retail investor psychology.
What do bullish, bearish, and neutral sentiment mean?
Bullish sentiment reflects the percentage of survey respondents who expect stock prices to rise over the next six months. Historically, bullish sentiment has averaged approximately 37.5%. Readings significantly above this level — generally considered to be more than one standard deviation above the mean — indicate elevated optimism among individual investors.
Bearish sentiment measures the percentage who expect stock prices to fall over the next six months. The historical average for bearish sentiment is around 31%. Extended periods of elevated bearishness, particularly readings above 40–45%, have historically coincided with market bottoms and subsequent recoveries.
Neutral sentiment captures investors who expect little change in market direction. The historical average is approximately 31.5%. High neutral readings often reflect heightened uncertainty, with investors unwilling to commit to a directional view. Unusually low neutral readings tend to accompany more polarized markets where investors are choosing sides.
The bull-bear spread — calculated by subtracting bearish from bullish sentiment — is a widely followed summary statistic. A positive spread indicates more optimists than pessimists; a negative spread signals the reverse. Its historical average is approximately +6.5 percentage points.
How to use AAII sentiment as a contrarian indicator
The AAII Sentiment Survey is widely cited as a contrarian indicator — meaning that extreme readings have historically predicted market moves in the opposite direction. When individual investors become overwhelmingly bearish, it has often marked a point of maximum pessimism near market bottoms. When bullish sentiment reaches extreme highs, it has sometimes coincided with market tops, as too many investors are already positioned for gains.
Analysis of the survey data since 1987 supports this interpretation. When bearish sentiment reaches two or more standard deviations above its historical mean, the S&P 500 has tended to produce above-average returns over the following six to twelve months. The most dramatic historical example: bearish sentiment hit a record 70.3% on March 5, 2009, just days before the market bottomed and began one of the longest bull markets in history. Read the full research →
Importantly, sentiment data should not be used in isolation. AAII recommends using sentiment readings alongside quantitative stock screens, fundamental analysis, and asset allocation data for a more complete picture of market conditions.
Survey methodology and history
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey began in July 1987 as a mail-based poll sent to a random sample of AAII members each week. It transitioned to an online format in early 2000, with voting open to all registered AAII members from Thursday 12:01 a.m. through Wednesday 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time each week. Results are tabulated and published on Thursdays.
The survey's respondent base consists of individual investors — not professional fund managers or Wall Street analysts — giving it a demographic profile distinct from professional sentiment surveys such as the Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Report or the NAAIM Exposure Index. This retail-investor focus is a key reason the survey functions as a contrarian indicator at extremes.
The complete weekly historical dataset — spanning from the survey's inception through the present week — is available to AAII members at the historical results page.
Historical extremes: when sentiment hit its limits
The most actionable readings from the AAII Sentiment Survey are extreme ones — moments when fear or greed pushed well beyond normal bounds. The table below shows the most notable historical extremes and what followed for the S&P 500.
| Date | Reading | Level | S&P 500 — 6 months later | S&P 500 — 12 months later |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2009 | Bearish | 70.3% All-time high | +36.4% | +68.6% |
| Oct 19, 1990 | Bearish | 55.9% | +28.1% | +29.1% |
| Jul 26, 2002 | Bearish | 58.2% | +11.2% | +22.4% |
| Sep 29, 2022 | Bearish | 60.9% | +14.8% | +21.5% |
| Jan 6, 2000 | Bullish | 75.0% All-time high | −7.6% | −14.2% |
| Dec 26, 2019 | Bullish | 56.5% | −5.9% | −8.1% |
Returns are approximate price returns for the S&P 500 Index from the survey date. Past extremes do not guarantee future results. Full historical dataset available to AAII members at sentimentsurvey/sent_results.
AAII Sentiment Survey vs. other sentiment indicators
The Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment Survey, published since 1963, polls independent investment newsletter editors rather than individual investors. Because newsletter editors tend to follow trends rather than anticipate reversals, it often moves with the market rather than against it. The AAII survey, by contrast, captures the retail investor — more prone to capitulating at bottoms and over-buying at tops — which is why its extreme readings tend to be more reliably contrarian.
The CNN Fear & Greed Index aggregates seven market-based signals into a single daily 0–100 score. It is a useful real-time gauge but does not isolate individual investor psychology the way the AAII survey does.
The NAAIM Exposure Index measures how aggressively active money managers are positioned in equities. High NAAIM exposure combined with extreme AAII bearishness — institutions buying while retail panics — has historically preceded strong market recoveries.
Used together, these indicators paint a more complete picture than any single measure: AAII sentiment as a medium-term contrarian signal at extremes, CNN Fear & Greed as a short-term momentum gauge, and NAAIM as a read on professional positioning.