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Investment Newsletters Articles

Believing Performance Claims: A Triumph of Hope Over Experience

January 2012 by Mark Hulbert
Many advisers may use short-term returns to tout strong performance, but over the long term, a 15% annualized return is the maximum sustainable return. Read more »

Think Twice, Even Thrice, Before Trading

May 2011 by Mark Hulbert
A study of newsletter advisers found that most would have achieved better returns if they reduced the number of buy and sell transactions. Read more »

Prior Bear Markets: A Poor Guide to Future Newsletter Performance

June 2009 by Mark Hulbert
The current stock bear market has been so traumatic, it is likely to dominate investment decision-making for years. But that may not be such a good thing, because performance in bear markets is a poor guide as to how an adviser or strategy will perform over the long term. A look at the numbers. Read more »

Long-Term Newsletter Performance: It's Not Easy to Beat the Market

July 2008 by Mark Hulbert
How have investment newsletters performed over the very long term? Overall, beating the market is a relatively rare phenomenon. Read more »

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same

November 2007 by Mark Hulbert
Lessons learned from monitoring newsletter performance over the last 30 years. Read more »

Recipe for Picking Winners: Add Time to a Pinch of the Past

June 2007 by Mark Hulbert
Past performance isn't a guarantee, but it serves as an important tool when choosing an investment adviser--if you focus on track records of eight to 10 years, or longer. A look at the evidence. Read more »

Creating the Ideal Benchmark: Freeze Your Adviser

September 2006 by Mark Hulbert
Has your adviser beaten his performance benchmark, or hasn't he? Standard performance comparisons raise a surprising number of complex issues. A different way of constructing benchmarks - and how newsletters stack up. Read more »

Asset Allocation: Is It Really Different This Time?

June 2006 by Mark Hulbert
Many investors recently have questioned whether the relationship among traditional asset classes has changed. The investment implication is that investors need to diversify more broadly into alternative asset classes. But have things really changed? A look at U.S. stocks versus other traditional asset classes suggests things may not really be so different. Read more »

Lessons of the Last Quarter Century: Tie Yourself to Your Strategy

September 2005 by Mark Hulbert
A look at the performance of investment newsletters over the last 25 years indicates that there is a wide diversity of approaches among the top performers. What do they have in common? They stick to their style. Read more »

Should You Seek or Shun the Most Popular Stocks?

June 2005 by Mark Hulbert
Contrary to the contrarians, a short study shows you shouldn't automatically shun the most popular stocks. Read more »

Investor Sentiment Indicators: Quite Contrary?

September 2004 by Mark Hulbert
Investment Newsletters: Does the market run contrary to investor sentiment? An examination of the relationship between the stock market and measures of investor sentiment indicates that there may be something worthwhile to contrarian analysis. Read more »

Performance Guides: The Longer the Track Record, The Sharper the Image

June 2004 by Mark Hulbert
Investment Newsletters: The bear market that began in March 2000 had one silver lining: It provided the ultimate test of whether performance-monitoring systems can separate the good from the bad. Read more »

Are We in a Bull Market Beginning or a Bear Market Correction?

September 2003 by Mark Hulbert
Investment Newsletters: Since March 2003, small-cap growth stocks have outperformed small-cap value stocks. This is more reminiscent of the speculative behavior prior to major market tops than the beginning of a new bull market. Read more »

Just How Difficult Is It to Time the Bond Market?

July 2003 by Mark Hulbert
Bond market timers have faced tough challenges in recent years. Have they risen to the occasion? Read more »

The Price-Value Relationship: Do You Get What You Pay For?

May 2003 by Mark Hulbert
Direct mail marketers say that in head-to-head tests of two investment newsletters that differ only in price, the higher-priced one often receives more responses. Do more expensive newsletters provide better returns? Read more »

Newsletter Sentiment: It's the Degree of Agreement That Counts

September 2002 by Mark Hulbert
Rather than concentrate on the average recommendation among newsletters, new research focuses on the degree of dispersion among their various recommendations, which may be correlated with very short-term market phenomena. Read more »

Analysts vs. Newsletters: Whose Recommendations Are Best?

June 2002 by Mark Hulbert
Wall Street's aversion to the word "sell" may be no more pernicious than grade inflation. Virtually no college student today is given a grade below a C. But few are fooled: Most know that a C is a failing grade. Read more »

Predicting Market Directions: The Myth of the Five-Day Index

February 2002 by Mark Hulbert
Many advisers subscribe to the belief that if the first five trading days of the year produce a gain, the year as a whole will be bullish, too. But is it grounded in historical fact? How certain beliefs take on a life of their own. Read more »