AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week:

[

Do you feel the direction of the market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)?

]

The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey,
which offers insight into the mood of individual investors.

Survey Results for Week Ending 2/22/2017

Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.


HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.4%
BULLISH
38.5%
+5.4
Percentage point
change from
last week
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.3%
NEUTRAL
29.2%
-5.3
Percentage point
change from
last week
HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.3%
BEARISH
32.3%
-0.1
Percentage point
change from
last week

Note: Numbers may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron's and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other financial professionals.

AAII Sentiment Survey:

Bullish sentiment rebounded to a six-month high, though the rise was only large enough to bring optimism back to its long-term historical average.

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is at a six-week high, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. The rebound is occurring as neutral sentiment is at a seven-week low. Pessimism, however, is essentially unchanged from a week ago and remains above its historical average.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 5.4 percentage points to 38.5%. Optimism was last higher on January 11, 2017 (43.6%). The rise puts bullish sentiment even with its historical average of 38.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 5.3 percentage points to 29.2%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on January 4, 2017 (28.6%). The historical average is 31.0%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, is 32.3%—a decline of just 0.1 percentage points. Pessimism remains above its historical average of 30.5% for the fifth time in six weeks.

Though bullish sentiment had been below average over the five previous weeks, it was never unusually low. Rather, optimism had merely fluctuated within the lower half of its typical range before rebounding to back to its historical average this week.

This week's rebound in optimism comes as both large- and small-cap stocks rose to new record highs. Not all individual investors are encouraged by the continued rally, however, with some worrying about valuations or a forthcoming pullback.

The potential impact that President Trump could have on the domestic and global economy continues to cause uncertainty or concern among some investors, though encouraging others. Also influencing investor sentiment are earnings, consumer sentiment and the magnitude and timing of future interest rate increases.

To keep reading »

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Sentiment Survey

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How to Use the AAII Sentiment Survey as a Gauge of Future Market Direction

Over the years, AAII analysts have examined the weekly results and have tried to give some perspective to the data. These articles are the results of some of this analysis.

Analyzing the AAII Sentiment Survey Without Hindsight »
Using the AAII Sentiment Survey as a Contrarian Indicator »




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