Part 2 of My Investing Resolutions for 2020

by Charles Rotblut | January 09, 2020

Last week, I shared the first part of my investing resolutions for 2020. This week, I’m sharing the second part of the list in numeric order (which is why it starts with resolution #12). Both are part of an ongoing set of resolutions I’ve been sharing and updating since 2012.

Some of these resolutions can be accomplished fairly quickly. Others may take time or require a change in behavior. Psychology Today recently offered a few suggestions on how to make resolutions stickier. Their suggestions were to choose what’s important, focus on one goal at a time and ask for support.

I would suggest also checking back in on your resolutions throughout the year. Are you sticking to them? If not, what can you do to get yourself back on track? Resolutions requiring a lasting change won’t be fulfilled with one step. They require ongoing effort and attention. So, pull out your calendar or smartphone and add reminders to revisit your resolutions. Doing so will increase the odds of fulfilling them.

With this in mind, here is the second part of this year’s updated list of New Year’s resolutions for investors.

12. Check your beneficiary designations. It is critical that all of your beneficiary designations are current and correctly listed. Even if nothing has changed over the past year, ensure that the designations on all of your accounts are correct. Also, make sure your beneficiaries know the accounts and policies they are listed on. Finally, be certain that those you would depend on to take over your financial affairs have access to the documents they need in the event of an emergency (see resolution #10 from last week, write and maintain emergency instructions on how to manage your portfolio. While you are at it, contact all of the financial institutions you have an account or policy with to ensure your contact information is correct.

13. Be disciplined, not dogmatic. When you come across information that contradicts your views, do not automatically assume it is wrong. The information may highlight risks you have not previously considered or that you have downplayed in the past. At the same time, don’t be quick to change your investing style just because you hear of a strategy or an approach that is different than yours. Part of investing success comes from being open to new ideas while maintaining the ability to stick with a rational strategy based on historical facts. When in doubt, remember resolution #1, only follow strategies you can stick with no matter how good or bad market conditions are.

14. Never panic. (UPDATED!) Whenever stocks incur a correction (a decline of 10%–20%) or fall into bear market territory (a drop of 20% or more), the temptation to sell becomes more intense. Our brains are programmed to disdain losses as well as to react first and think later.

This focus on the short term causes us to ignore the lessons of history. Market history shows a pattern of rewards for those who endure the bouts of short-term volatility. We saw this in 2019. Those who didn’t pull out of stocks in 2018, when two corrections occurred, went on to realize very good returns last year.

Drops happen regularly and so do recoveries. If you sell in the midst of a correction or a bear market, you will lock in your losses. If you don’t immediately buy when the market rebounds—and people who panic during bad market conditions wait too long to get back in—you will also miss out on big gains, compounding the damage to your portfolio. Bluntly put, panicking results in a large and lasting forfeiture of wealth.

15. Don’t make a big mistake. (UPDATED!) Things are going to go haywire. A stock you bought will suddenly plunge in value. A mutual fund strategy will hit the skids. A bond issuer will receive a big credit downgrade. The market will drop at the most inopportune time.

If you are properly diversified, don’t make big bets on uncertain outcomes (including how the financial markets will react to this year’s elections), avoid constantly chasing the hot investment or hot strategy and set up obstacles to prevent your emotions from driving your investment decisions, you will have better long-term results than a large number of investors.

16. Take advantage of being an individual investor. Perhaps the greatest benefit of being an individual investor is the flexibility you are afforded. You are not restricted by market capitalization or investment style. You also never have to report quarterly or annual performance. This means you can invest in a completely different manner than institutional investors can. Take advantage of this flexibility, because doing so gives you more opportunity to achieve your financial goals.

17. Treat investing as a business. The primary reason you are investing is to create or preserve wealth, and no one cares more about your personal financial situation than you do. So be proactive. Do your research before buying a security or fund, ask questions of your adviser and be prepared to sell any investment at any given time if your reasons for selling so dictate.

18. Alter your passwords and use anti-virus software. There continues to be news stories about hacks. The best way you can protect yourself is to vary your passwords and use security software. A password manager is helpful for this. (I use Dashlane, though there are competitors, such as LastPass.) Anti-virus software and firewalls can keep viruses off of your computer and help thwart hackers.

19. Protect your identity. (UPDATED!) Identity theft can cause significant problems. Freezing your credit, monitoring your credit reports (Consumer Reports recommends AnnualCreditReport) and paying your taxes as early as possible can help prevent you from becoming a victim. Promptly challenge any suspicious charges on your credit card or telephone bills. If you get an unsolicited call asking for personal information, such as your Social Security number, or from someone claiming to be an IRS agent, hang up. (Better yet, don’t answer the phone unless you are certain you know who is calling.) It’s also a good idea to cover the keypad when typing your passcode into an ATM. Never click on a link in an email purporting to be from a financial institution (a bank, a brokerage firm, an insurance company, etc.). Instead, type the company’s website address directly into your browser.

The Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018 required credit bureaus to allow consumers to freeze their credit reports at no cost. The following links will go directly to the relevant pages on each credit bureau’s website:

Equifax: www.equifax.com/personal/credit-report-services
Experian: www.experian.com/freeze/center.html
TransUnion: www.transunion.com/credit-freeze

20. To help others, invest in yourself first. Investing based on your values, donating to charity, devoting your time to causes you are passionate about and giving to family and friends are all noble actions and goals. To do so now and in the future requires taking care of yourself. Keep yourself on a path to being financially sound through regular saving and controlled spending. Good sleep habits, exercise and following a healthy diet (eat your vegetables!) are also important. The better shape you keep yourself in from a physical, mental and financial standpoint, the more you’ll be able to give back to society.

For those of you seeking to follow an ESG strategy, be it due to environmental, social or governance issues, make sure you stay on a path to achieve financial freedom. The same applies to other values-based investing, such as following religious beliefs. While it is possible to do well by doing good, every restriction you place on what you’ll invest in reduces the universe of potential investments you will have to choose from. For ESG ideas, see The Next Generation of Socially Responsible Investing in the March 2017 AAII Journal and Identifying and Screening for Vice and Virtue Stocks in the September 2018 AAII Journal.

21. Be a mindful investor. Slow down and carefully consider each investment choice before making a decision. Ensure that the transaction you are about to enter makes sense given your investing time horizon, which may be 30 years or longer, and that it makes sense given your buy and sell rules. A common trap that investors fall into is to let short-term events impact decisions that should be long-term in nature. If you think through your decision process, you may well find yourself making fewer, but smarter, investment decisions.

22. Take a deep breath. Often, the best investing action is to simply take a deep breath and gather your composure. Short-term volatility can fray anyone’s nerves, but successful investors don’t let emotions drive their trading decisions. It’s okay to be scared; it’s not okay to make decisions that could impact your portfolio’s long-term performance based on short-term market moves. If you find yourself becoming nervous, tune out the investment media until you get back into a calm state of mind and then focus on resolutions #1, #2, #3 and #4 (found in last week’s Investor Update). Success comes from being disciplined enough to focus on your strategy and goals and not on what others think you should do.

Finally, remember that you have a life outside of the financial markets. Investing is merely a means to an end. Put the majority of your energy into activities you truly enjoy, including spending time with family and friends.

More on AAII.com
AAII Sentiment Survey

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is at a six-week high. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows lower levels of bullish and neutral sentiment.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 4.1 percentage points to 33.1%. The historical average is 38.0%. Optimism has been below this average during 41 out of the last 52 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 3.9 percentage points to 37.0%. Even with the drop, neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the 33rd time in 34 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 8.0 percentage points to 29.9%. Pessimism was last higher on November 27, 2019 (30.3%). Nonetheless, bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 30.5% for the 12th consecutive week.

All three indicators are within their typical historical ranges.

The killing of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani likely influenced this week’s results. Several respondents brought up the conflict with Iran and tensions in the Middle East. Also affecting sentiment are the trade agreement between the U.S. and China, Washington politics, earnings growth, the economy, valuations and the stock market’s recent record highs.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what they think will most influence the direction of stock prices in 2020. Approximately 39% of respondents believe that geopolitical events will have the most influence on stock prices in 2020. Unsurprisingly, the ongoing conflicts with Iran and China are named specifically. Domestic politics are also named by many respondents, with 26% stating that the outcome of the November elections will most likely influence the market. Additionally, 18% of respondents from this survey believe that earnings performance will sway the stock market and 17% say that the Federal Reserve’s policy and a low-interest-rate environment will have the biggest influence on how the stock market will move in 2020.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “The economy and earnings. And maybe an end to some of the trade wars.”
  • “The Fed will need to continue to lower rates and will probably need to continue its easing to maintain liquidity in overnight lending.”
  • “Strong business cycle in the U.S. and better trade agreements with China.”
  • “Earnings versus forecasts.”
  • “Conflict in the Persian Gulf and the 2020 election will increase uncertainty.”


This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 33.1%, down 4.1 points
Neutral: 37.0%, down 3.9 points
Bearish: 29.9%, up 8.0 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 38.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 30.5%
Take the Sentiment Survey.

AAII Asset Allocation Survey

Individual investors’ exposure to cash rebounded in December after having fallen to nearly a two-year low in November. The December AAII Asset Allocation Survey also shows small declines in equity and fixed-income exposure.

Stock and stock fund allocations pulled back by 1.2 percentage points to 65.8%. Even with the decline, stock and stock fund allocations are above their historical average of 61.0% for the 81st consecutive month.

Bond and bond fund allocations were 0.1 percentage points lower at 18.6%. Fixed-income allocations are above their historical average of 16.0% for the 10th consecutive month and the 11th time in 12 months.

Cash allocations rose by 1.3 percentage points to 15.7%. Even with the increase, cash allocations are below their historical average of 23.0% for the 97th consecutive month.

The new record highs for the major stock indexes and two weeks of above-average bullish sentiment did not translate into larger equity allocations. Rather, the results from our asset allocation survey suggest that many individual investors chose to keep their allocations largely unchanged.

 

December AAII Asset Allocation Survey results:

  • Stocks and stock funds: 65.8%, down 1.2 percentage points
  • Bonds and bond funds: 18.6%, down 0.1 percentage points
  • Cash: 15.7%, up 1.3 percentage points

December AAII Asset Allocation Survey details:

  • Stocks: 28.7%, up 0.9 percentage points
  • Stock funds: 37.1%, down 2.0 percentage points
  • Bonds: 3.9%, up 0.1 percentage points
  • Bond funds: 14.6%, down 0.3 percentage points

Historical Averages:

  • Stocks/Stock Funds: 61.0%
  • Bonds/Bond Funds: 16.0%
  • Cash: 23.0%

The AAII Asset Allocation Survey has been conducted monthly since November 1987 and asks AAII members what percentage of their portfolios are allocated to stocks, stock funds, bonds, bond funds and cash. The survey and its results are available online at: www.aaii.com/investor-surveys.

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/assetallocationsurvey.

December AAII Asset Allocation Survey results:
  • Stocks and Stock Funds: 65.8%, down 1.2 percentage points
  • Bonds and Bond Funds: 18.6%, down 0.2 percentage points
  • Cash: 15.7%, up 1.3 percentage points
December AAII Asset Allocation Details:
  • Stocks: 28.7%, up 0.9 percentage points
  • Stocks Funds: 37.1%, down 2.0 percentage points
  • Bonds: 3.9%, up 0.1 percentage points
  • Bond Funds: 14.6%, down 0.3 percentage points

Historical averages:
  • Stocks/Stock Funds: 61.5%
  • Bonds/Bond Funds: 16.0%
  • Cash: 22.5%

Take the Asset Allocation Survey.


Discussion

No comments have been added yet. Add your thoughts to the discussion!

You need to log in as a registered AAII user before commenting.
Create an account

Log In