What You Can Expect at the AAII Conference
Thursday, August 23, 2018

Those of you who regularly read my weekly commentary know that I attend conferences and other industry events. The presentations are generally informative, but it’s the personal interaction that’s the big draw for me. I’ve made numerous connections over the years, many I never would have made had I simply stayed in my office. Those connections aren’t just with speakers, either—many have been with other attendees.

I bring this up because I want to talk to you about our forthcoming AAII Investor Conference. It’s a great opportunity to learn from some of the smartest people in the industry. Not only will you be able to attend their presentations, but there will also be time for questions and answers afterward. In addition, you’ll have ample time to meet your fellow individual investors between sessions, at the luncheon and during the two breakfasts.

Of course, the highlight of the conference will be the speakers themselves. We’re excited to have University of Chicago professor Harold Pollack as our opening ceremony speaker and long-time AAII Journal contributor MarketWatch’s Mark Hulbert as our luncheon keynote speaker. Many of you know Hulbert for his newsletter ratings and his appearances at past conferences; he always draws a big crowd. Pollack received a lot of positive attention from across the investment industry when he demonstrated how a portfolio strategy can fit on a single index card. I’m currently reading his book—“The Index Card: Why Personal Finance Doesn’t Have to Be Complicated” (Portfolio, 2016)—and I think you’ll enjoy his commonsense approach to investing and personal finance.

Many of the most popular speakers from past AAII Investor Conferences are returning, including Morningstar’s Christine Benz, CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall, AFAM Capital’s John Buckingham, Cambria Investment Management’s Mebane Faber and Paul Merriman of the Merriman Financial Education Foundation. We’ll also have several new speakers, including Kiplinger’s Janet Bodnar and Alpha Architect’s Jack Vogel, as well as new topics including cryptocurrencies and protecting yourself online.

In addition, you’ll get to hear from my fellow colleagues. Senior financial analyst Wayne Thorp will discuss how to develop a stock screening strategy using AAII’s Stock Investor Pro. AAII Dividend Investing product manager Jaclyn McClellan will show you how to analyze dividend-paying stocks, including what traits to look for. As for myself, I’ll discuss how and why I use value, momentum and quality to find attractive stocks.

For more program details, click here.

As you can see, there will be a lot of great information given out over the course of three days. In fact, once you are there, the hardest decision you will have will be choosing which of the concurrent presentations to sit in on. Though you’ll inevitably find yourself skipping one presentation to see another, the good news is that we’ll be recording all of the sessions so you can hear what you’ve missed. (Audio and presentation slides will be made available to all conference attendees for free.)

This year’s conference will be held at the Paris Las Vegas Hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. I’ve personally stayed there before; it’s a nice property and it’s located near the center of the famous Vegas strip. Plus, there is lots of great food and many good shows in Las Vegas.

Our conferences regularly sell out, so if you’re considering going, register now. The early bird discount—a savings of $100—is expiring Monday at midnight.

I hope to see you there.

More on AAII.com

Highlights from this month's AAII Journal

The Week Ahead

Just 12 S&P 500 index companies are scheduled to report next week as second-quarter earnings season comes to an end. Included in this group are Best Buy Co. Inc. (BBY) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. (HPE) on Tuesday; Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) on Wednesday; and both Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) and Dollar General Corp. (DG) on Thursday.

The week’s first economic reports will be July international trade, the June Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s August consumer confidence survey, all of which will be released Tuesday. Wednesday will feature the first revision to second-quarter GDP and July pending home sales. July personal income and spending will be released Thursday. Friday will feature the August Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the University of Michigan’s final August consumer sentiment survey.

The Treasury Department will auction off $36 billion of two-year notes on Monday, $37 billion of five-year notes on Tuesday and $17 billion of two-year floating-rate notes (FRNs) and $31 billion of seven-year notes on Wednesday.

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AAII Sentiment Survey

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market rose to a six-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment and pessimism both declined.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 2.3 percentage points to 38.5%. This is the first time optimism has been at or above its historical average of 38.5% since July 11, 2018 (43.1%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined by a slight 0.3 percentage points to 34.5%. Neutral sentiment remains above its historical average of 31.0% for the 26th time in 27 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, fell 2.0 percentage points to 27.1%. The historical average is 30.5%.

During the past 26 weeks, optimism has either been at or above its historical average just six times. This is in sharp contrast to the beginning of the year when bullish sentiment was above its historical average for seven out of the first eight weeks.

At current levels, all three indicators are well within their typical historical ranges.

Tariffs, and the possibility of a trade war, remain front and center on the minds of many individual investors. Also influencing sentiment are Washington politics (including President Donald Trump), economic growth, interest rates (including monetary policy), valuations and corporate profits.

This week’s special question asked AAII members whether U.S. trade policy, or the possibility of the Turkish lira causing problems beyond Turkey, is having a bigger influence on their stock market sentiment. An overwhelming majority of respondents (70%) say U.S. trade policy is having a bigger impact. Many of these respondents view Turkey’s economy as being too small to have a global impact. Others say trade policy is having a direct impact here in the U.S. Almost 12% of respondents say neither is impacting their stock market sentiment. Just 4% say Turkey is having a bigger impact.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

  • “I believe U.S. trade policy will have a bigger impact. I believe Turkish insolvency will only affect Turkey.”
  • “U.S. trade policy due to many American companies incurring higher raw material prices.”
  • “Neither. My vote is based on the solid economic environment in the U.S.”
  • “Trade policy. Tariffs could affect consumer prices and put a damper on a strong economy.”


This week’s Sentiment Survey results:

Bullish: 38.5%, up 2.3 points
Neutral: 34.5%, down 0.3 points
Bearish: 27.1%, down 2.0 points

Historical averages:

Bullish: 38.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 30.5%
Take the Sentiment Survey.

Local Chapter Meetings
AAII Local Chapter Meetings offer you a variety of presentations from expert speakers who will give you their view on the world of investing. A bonus of attending a Chapter Meeting near you is the opportunity to meet other AAII members who share your interest and enthusiasm for investing. You can even share the Chapter experience with your family and friends by inviting them to attend Chapter Meetings with you!