Don't Judge a Stock by Its High or Low Share Price

John from Massachusetts posted 8 months ago:

My wife and I are now around 80. We are starting to throttle back on stocks from 80% to 70% and maybe to 60%

Barry from TX posted 8 months ago:

So, Charles, I had all this time available since I could not pester the AAII Staff, so I decided to do some research. I wondered how asset allocations from the Thanksgiving week AAII Member Asset Allocation survey align with AAII Member preferences for Thanksgiving dinner courses, as indicated in a contemporaneous survey. I hypothesized that AAII member portfolio allocations predict AAII Member Thanksgiving meal course preferences. I used relative percentage allocations for both the asset classes and meal courses as proxies and for percentages as “P values” for “degrees of freedom.” My burning research question was, how well do AAII members' asset preferences align with Thanksgiving meal preferences? Drumstick roll, please!!! The data indicate that stocks (71.2%/HA 61.5%) align with turkey meat (36.4%); bonds/FI assets (14.0%/22.5%) align with stuffing (20.0%); cash (14.8%) aligns with gravy (7.9%); dividends (no data) are likely a good proxy for Pie/Dessert (22.9%); and “other” assets (11.8%) are an excellent proxy for the Blessings that AAII Membership offerings brought to each Member’s Family “table” this year. Now that Thanksgiving is over, I think I’ll plan a surprise for Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanza. I am considering a similar “prediction market” simulation for how well AAII Member Sentiment Survey Indicator ratings predict prospects for world peace. OK, fellow members, Santa and the whole world will be watching. Get those bullish sentiments going to save the world ... and our portfolios. Cheers.

Barry from TX posted 8 months ago:

Charles, there is so much information about AAII diversity in the responses to this week’s special question -- what is your favorite thing to eat on Thanksgiving?" ... where 11.8% responded "other." Can you publish some of the "other" responses? I was one of the "immortal" 11.8%. I voted for black-eyed peas. It is a tradition at our family Thanksgiving dinner to serve black-eyed peas, a traditional southern "delicacy." They were served frequently during the Great Depression period because any sharecropper could grow them around their "shotgun" house and spice them up to taste with turnip greens and pork. After we survived the Depression and WWII, a tradition evolved to serve the peas when younger generations asked why we served them. The current protocol is for the most senior member to ask, "I wonder what the poor people are eating today?" The traditional answer is "black-eyed peas" to remind new generations at the table that we were not always as prosperous as we are now, and to be thankful for the feast before us -- tasty turkey, cornbread stuffing, green beans, dumplings, various special orders to accommodate tastes, and desserts we have before us. Then we say Grace and have fellowship. I bet there are dozens of similar traditions worth sharing. Can you publish a list?

Charles M Rotblut from Illinois posted 8 months ago:

Happy holidays, Barry!

The Sentiment Survey special question answers are all multiple choice. So, we don't have a list showing what was included in "other". It could have been sweet potatoes, rolls, a casserole or, if someone is a diehard Peanuts fan, popcorn and toast.

Barry from TX posted 8 months ago:

Thanks, Charles. Here is a comment related to the headline of this COI issue. Today, 12/08/25, WSJ published an article on the wide range of depreciation schedules AI leaders are using. This talks directly to AAII's fundamentals-based analysis teachings and this month's COI on not judging a stock by its price. In the WSJ article, the number of years AI management teams are choosing ranges from 3 to 7 years. Yes, the CEO and CFO choose depreciation schedules based on considerations. Some choose straight-line depreciation, others choose accelerated depreciation. Some choices are self-serving to "diddle" [guess] how soon they will need to have higher profits on some future earnings call to address analysts' valuation estimates of their earnings. The choice of an "estimated useful life" is a Rorschach test for a range of CEO characteristics, from data integrity to risk adversity. The WSJ article should have mapped the "estimated useful lives" on a book cost/years depreciation grid to help readers visualize the differences between AI management, so investors can match their risk tolerances to the company risk profiles. That would be "good" journalism.