Don't Mistake MicroStrategy's 10% Preferred Yield for Pure Bitcoin Exposure

Barry from TX posted about 1 year ago:

Charles, you have outdone yourself. There is a great deal to unpack here. #1 The overall theme I “sense” (as in “sentiment”) here is AAII is publishing an INCREASING amount of articles on various signals of HOW NEW "ALTERNATIVE" "EXOTIC" ASSETS ARE INCREASING OVERALL MARKET RISK FOR INVESTORS. #2 This week’s list of “market RISK signals” includes (1) MSTR’s STRD, (2) the proposed AAII “integrated [soft and hard data] sentiment gauge,” from a prior article, (3) preferred stock, (4) crypto, (5) buffered ETFs/Funds, (6) the responses in the AAII sentiment survey with 40.9% conservative vs 49.9% “stand pat” = 90% creates an image of AAIIers as “deers in the headlights” in the middle of the [“market”] road while a diesel truckload of RISK barrels down on them. #3 In all homage to James Cloonan, see #6 in the above list. #4 I guess the April 2nd “Liberation Day” signals that “The Art of The Deal” is the new normal for what passes as “leadership” – call them bad names, tell them you are going to raise their costs, and give them a deadline to take the deal. #5 Having ridden out the turbulence of a drop in altitude (PF market value) and airspeed (PF growth) of about 15% in the last 3 months, the latest “early market warning signal.” #6 Markets have their own version of “the art of the deal” – there are no deals! #7 I did not sound the claxon. We are still flying straight and level and are back at altitude, but I see rising terrain on the radar, NTAM weather warnings, and congestion ahead in the landing pattern. It’s time to conserve fuel and wake up the navigator/copilot. #8 My overall sense is that 2025 is 2007 "de ja vu" (channeling Lawrence P. Berra’s advice). #9 The new “smart money” crazies (enabled by the SEC’s liberalization of investment instrument standards] are inventing a continuous stream of “exotic” alternative investments (see above and recent articles) that have all the opaque mystery (and fecal smell) of the “SAFE INVESTMENTS" of “diversified” risk of real estate “tranches” from 2008 … which were “fully insured” until they weren’t … and they were't and left taxpayers holding the bag (as usual).

Barry from TX posted about 1 year ago:

Charles, I applaud the AAII plan to integrate soft sentiment data with hard market data. #1 Standardized changes and comparisons are the key statistics for making decisions. #2 We need something more math-friendly than the AAII Grades used in Platinum, like standard deviations or percentile ranking.#3 Broaden the definition of “market” beyond SPX. #4 Use equal-cap-weight index data to level out valuation distortions. #5 Use only market percentage changes, not end-of-day totals, to make comparisons. #6 As market change signals, use popular technical analysis indicators like the long-term 200-day Simple Moving Average (200DSMA), short-term 20-day Simple Moving Average (20DSMA), momentum/Relative Strength Index (RSI), and market breadth. #7 Regional Feds have some interesting data. #8 Cost permitting, examine the surveys and measurement scales that Gallup deploys to measure business and workplace sentiment, tracking workforce changes. For example, top-half / top-quintile changes compared to bottom-half / bottom-quintile changes. #9 The AAII sentiment survey “one question” needs to be broadened / “integrated” to relate AAII Member Market Sentiment to the AAII Asset Allocations Survey behavior. #10 I have noticed that the number of AAII member responses is very low in some less-populated states, and, thus, the AAII heat map is misleading, similar to national election polling as elections approach, due to the growing entrenchment of political sentiments that impact all financial decisions. #11 That’s the key. You need a way to “weigh” political sentiment without asking directly. Pollsters “adjust” political sentiment data all the time to “normalize” their samples to national databases. Good luck. #12 If you can have Premium Program managers pick "ONE statistic" to integrate into the overall mashup, members can see how each program is progressing relative to external investing choices to prove the relative value of the programs. #13 Build Model Portfolios for each of the 3 PRISM model portfolios and report month-over-month changes to demonstrate efficacy and comparative progress. #14 Consider using monthly Bayesian updating, not just a new set of data every month, to provide percentage comparisons of changing positions. This will make the AAII offering unique and more useful for determining the impact of changes.