Letters

Members weigh in on recent article topics, including market rebalancing, end-of-life plans, fund outperformers and retirement estimates.

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Accountability of Schwab Advisers

Comment on “How Schwab Invests, and His Views on the Broker Industry,” an interview with Charles Schwab, in the March 2020 AAII Journal:

Charles Schwab Corp. (SCHW) is a savings and loan corporation that delivers its portfolio management services through a separate company that houses all its independent advisers. Our financial fortunes are pretty much at the mercy of the capabilities and character flaws of the people in positions of trust that control market access and the “invisible” mechanisms used to deliver our objectives. Charles Schwab did not discuss how he ensures that his Schwab advisers subscribe to the same highly principled ideas he sets forth in his book or the advice he shares in this interview.
—Barry C. Johnson from Texas

Rebalancing & Market Movement

Comment on “Rebalancing Update: First Signal in Six Year to Adjust Allocations Issued,” by Charles Rotblut, CFA, in the March 2020 AAII Journal:

What was the actual date of this proposed rebalancing? It’s likely that the market’s drop self-corrected this out of balance issue.
—Tom from Texas

Charles Rotblut responds:
Tom, I used end-of-year data, so as of December 31, 2019. While the recent volatility is impacting the allocations, what the models show is that over time, simply relying on market movement is not enough to preserve the allocation.

Planning for the End of the Road

Comment on “Key End-of-Life Planning Tasks to Complete,” by Michael Falk, in the March 2020 AAII Journal:

Excellent article. I’ve been working the last couple of years on just what you preach, I’m calling it a road map to my life and endings. I’m copying this article and will put a copy in the family trust papers along with a much more personal letter, wishing the kids well with figuring out what I have cobbled together over the last 80 years. Thanks for your input and for giving me the confidence that I’m doing good with what I have accomplished so far.

By the way, don’t forget computer passwords and login names; make a list since these days everything we do is on the computer.
—Capt. Bill Ludwick from Florida/Ohio

Dividend Date Clarification

Comment on “Essential Dividend Dates You Should Know,” by Derek Hageman, in the March 2020 AAII Journal:

What happens if a stock is sold after the record date but before the payment date?
—Elmar Lawaczeck from Alabama

Charles Rotblut responds:
If you sell a stock after the record date, you are the owner of record for purposes of the dividend payment, so you would receive the dividend.

Fund Outperformers

Comment on “Outperforming Funds Stop Outperforming,” from Dispatches in the March 2020 AAII Journal:

My view: Nothing is forever. I will hold a stock or exchange-traded fund (ETF) until performance degrades below its peers. The latest AAII Top Mutual Fund and ETF guides show no (or very little) correlation between, say, year 1 & year -1, -2, -3, -4, -5. Discard it all and just compare charts of top leaders for latest gain and momentum, pick the top ones, buy and then monitor them similarly. Sell when your holdings deteriorate. Repeat.
—Roger from Florida

Estimating Retirement Needs

Comment on “How Future Retirees Overestimate Their Benefits,” from Dispatches in the March 2020 AAII Journal:

The question to ask is also whether future retirees are understating their needs at/during retirement. I think people should not be counting on Social Security benefits at all with their retirement planning, especially younger people. It is unlikely that young people will save enough in defined-contribution plans, even when augmented by Social Security, to satisfy their expected lifestyle in retirement—especially as people live longer.

Finally, the accepted “wisdom” that, at retirement, a retirement investment portfolio will be liquidated over time suggests poor retirement planning. Properly invested, almost anyone has the potential during their working life to accumulate a properly structured portfolio that can actually increase during retirement.
—Anonymous

Discussion

Norma P. from FL posted over 6 years ago:

I agree with Anonymous and suggest that anyone thinking about 'retirement assets' as an end goal has his (or her) head in the sand - just ask anyone today within one year of retirement invested 100% in this market and now jobless. Finances and life experiences/decisions go hand in hand. And when we talk about finances, we should be talking about every asset owned that has cash value including education. What people need is a life plan that gets reviewed and reworked throughout their lifetime.


Rich B. from Nevada posted over 6 years ago:

Relevance of AAII Surveys(?) - I find the surveys lacking critical background data to be relevant. A few significant numbers that would lend credence to the surveys are: number of participants, number of retirees participating, net worth of participants (or worth of portfolio) and age of participants. I am a long-time member of AAII. I have seldom participated in the surveys and I rarely more than glance at them. In my search of the AAII website, I found only two articles shedding any light on the demographics of the surveys’ universe, one from 2004 and one from 2013. A more frequent update on AAII members’ demographics would be very much welcomed by me; I would especially be interested in the membership by country.


c bird from WA posted over 6 years ago:

I have spent some time trying to extract information from AAII sentiment serveys. Downloaded S&P 500 daily data, VIX and weekly aaII sentiment back to 86. I you plot the full data set you get the standard cloud of points that looks radon but if you apply a CART ( classification and regression tree) style analysis there appear to be regions in the VIX x AAII sentiment space where there are correlations. when VIX >40 and AAII bearish sentiment is >40% and you look at the day to day % change in S&P 500 from the previous day there appears to be a negative correlation. I.e. when both are high the markets overreact. So I rise one day is followed by fall the next day. If vix is lower and aaII bearish is still high. the model breaks down. Other regions have not been investigated. Time will tell whether this relation holds up though not in this current cycle as Vix is a ways from 40 . Other than that I do not see much of utility from AAII.


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