Economic and Market Analysis Articles
The Fed Model’s Role in Market Valuation and Sentiment Analysis
May 2026 by John Bajkowski, Charles Rotblut
The Fed Model offers a simple and intuitive way to compare stock and bond valuations, but its theoretical and practical weaknesses need to be understood.
May 2026 by John Bajkowski, Charles Rotblut
The Fed Model offers a simple and intuitive way to compare stock and bond valuations, but its theoretical and practical weaknesses need to be understood.
Fed Signals That Investors Should Watch and What They Mean
November 2025 by Charles Rotblut, Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Cynthia McLaughlin
Incorporating Federal Reserve policy shifts into an investing model rooted in 12 market anomalies.
November 2025 by Charles Rotblut, Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Cynthia McLaughlin
Incorporating Federal Reserve policy shifts into an investing model rooted in 12 market anomalies.
Follow the Fed, Not Speculation About the Fed
November 2025 by Charles Rotblut
The CME FedWatch Tool shows the implied interest rates being priced into federal funds futures, giving a real-time indicator of what traders perceive to be the direction of interest rate changes.
November 2025 by Charles Rotblut
The CME FedWatch Tool shows the implied interest rates being priced into federal funds futures, giving a real-time indicator of what traders perceive to be the direction of interest rate changes.
How Individual Investors Can Use AI Tools to Track the Economy
November 2025 by John Bajkowski
Turn information overload into actionable insight and gain understanding of the macroeconomic elements driving market actions.
November 2025 by John Bajkowski
Turn information overload into actionable insight and gain understanding of the macroeconomic elements driving market actions.
Mastering the Market Sentiment of a Stock With AI Tools
August 2025 by Wayne A. Thorp
LLMs can process thousands of text sources to detect subtle changes in how a company is discussed.
August 2025 by Wayne A. Thorp
LLMs can process thousands of text sources to detect subtle changes in how a company is discussed.
Identifying Future Economic Changes With the Yield Curve
July 2025 by Cynthia McLaughlin
A positive, upward-sloping yield curve is a sign of economic expansion. A negative, inverted yield curve is a harbinger of economic contraction.
July 2025 by Cynthia McLaughlin
A positive, upward-sloping yield curve is a sign of economic expansion. A negative, inverted yield curve is a harbinger of economic contraction.
The Put-Call Ratio: Viewing Market Sentiment Through Options Activity
June 2025 by Wayne A. Thorp
During periods of fear or euphoria, the CBOE equity put-call ratio can inform your judgment by showing where sentiment may have gone too far.
June 2025 by Wayne A. Thorp
During periods of fear or euphoria, the CBOE equity put-call ratio can inform your judgment by showing where sentiment may have gone too far.
Navigating Market Cycles With Shiller’s CAPE Ratio
May 2025 by Wayne A. Thorp
The CAPE ratio empowers long-term investors to navigate volatile markets, forecast returns and make smarter decisions grounded in historical valuation trends.
May 2025 by Wayne A. Thorp
The CAPE ratio empowers long-term investors to navigate volatile markets, forecast returns and make smarter decisions grounded in historical valuation trends.
PEG Ratio Unreliable as a Market-Wide Indicator
April 2025 by Tudor Pop
A study examined whether the price-earnings-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio can be used as a market timing tool.
April 2025 by Tudor Pop
A study examined whether the price-earnings-to-earnings-growth (PEG) ratio can be used as a market timing tool.
Rising Egg Prices and Inflation
March 2025 by Charles Rotblut
The outsized increase in the price of eggs relative to overall inflation makes it easy to perceive inflation as being higher than it really is.
March 2025 by Charles Rotblut
The outsized increase in the price of eggs relative to overall inflation makes it easy to perceive inflation as being higher than it really is.
Interest Rates on Savings Still High as Rate-Cut Cycle Begins
October 2024 by Charles Rotblut
Two charts show the trends in interest rates since 2021.
October 2024 by Charles Rotblut
Two charts show the trends in interest rates since 2021.
The Implications of High Concentration in the S&P 500
July 2024 by Charles Rotblut
Concentration tells you how much of an index’s or portfolio’s returns are influenced by its largest positions.
July 2024 by Charles Rotblut
Concentration tells you how much of an index’s or portfolio’s returns are influenced by its largest positions.
Yield Shift Increases Relative Attractiveness of Bonds
June 2024 by Charles Rotblut
The Treasury bond’s yield was approaching a full percentage point above the earnings yield for the S&P 500 index as of early May 2024.
June 2024 by Charles Rotblut
The Treasury bond’s yield was approaching a full percentage point above the earnings yield for the S&P 500 index as of early May 2024.
The S&P 500 at 5,000: Don't Be Fooled by Point Hype
March 2024 by Charles Rotblut
There is an obvious difference between point moves and percentage changes.
March 2024 by Charles Rotblut
There is an obvious difference between point moves and percentage changes.
Forecasting Returns Through Changes in the Language of News
February 2024 by Eunice Kim
Quantifying the novelty of news with an entropy measure helps to predict stock market trends and macroeconomic outcomes for the subsequent year.
February 2024 by Eunice Kim
Quantifying the novelty of news with an entropy measure helps to predict stock market trends and macroeconomic outcomes for the subsequent year.
ETF Sector Performance: Technology on the Rebound
August 2023 by Charles Rotblut
Exchange-traded funds targeting tech stocks were up a sizzling 28.8% during the first half of 2023.
August 2023 by Charles Rotblut
Exchange-traded funds targeting tech stocks were up a sizzling 28.8% during the first half of 2023.
Stock and Bond Yields Are Converging
April 2023 by Charles Rotblut
The earnings yield is frequently used to assess the valuation of stocks compared to the valuation of bonds.
April 2023 by Charles Rotblut
The earnings yield is frequently used to assess the valuation of stocks compared to the valuation of bonds.
An Unusually Volatile Year
November 2022 by Charles Rotblut
The S&P 500 index is experiencing one of its most volatile years since the financial crisis of 2007–2009.
November 2022 by Charles Rotblut
The S&P 500 index is experiencing one of its most volatile years since the financial crisis of 2007–2009.
Best of the Web: Seven Key Sites for Investors
November 2022 by Charles Rotblut, Matthew Bajkowski, Derek J. Hageman, Sean Murphy
These handpicked websites stand out as leaders in their respective fields, providing free access to quality data and tools.
November 2022 by Charles Rotblut, Matthew Bajkowski, Derek J. Hageman, Sean Murphy
These handpicked websites stand out as leaders in their respective fields, providing free access to quality data and tools.
The Bear Market Has Reduced Valuations for Most Sectors
October 2022 by Charles Rotblut
Stocks go on sale when bear markets occur. The drop in prices gives investors the opportunity to pick up many stocks at reduced valuations.
October 2022 by Charles Rotblut
Stocks go on sale when bear markets occur. The drop in prices gives investors the opportunity to pick up many stocks at reduced valuations.
Online Exclusive: What Is the Yield Curve?
August 2022 by Matthew Bajkowski
The yield curve of U.S. Treasuries is a beneficial tool for investors in that it may identify major potential changes in the economy ahead of their occurrence. It is also free to the public and easy to use.
August 2022 by Matthew Bajkowski
The yield curve of U.S. Treasuries is a beneficial tool for investors in that it may identify major potential changes in the economy ahead of their occurrence. It is also free to the public and easy to use.
Yield Curve Inverted, but Not Yet Signaling a Recession
August 2022 by Charles Rotblut
The yield curve is a closely watched harbinger of recessions. Inverted yield curves have previously preceded most recessions over the past 50 years.
August 2022 by Charles Rotblut
The yield curve is a closely watched harbinger of recessions. Inverted yield curves have previously preceded most recessions over the past 50 years.
What You Can Gain From Reading the Economic Tea Leaves
November 2020 by Brian Haughey
Comparing changes in given metrics and their relative performance allows us to assess if economic activity is accelerating or decelerating and adjust our portfolio allocations if desired.
November 2020 by Brian Haughey
Comparing changes in given metrics and their relative performance allows us to assess if economic activity is accelerating or decelerating and adjust our portfolio allocations if desired.
Bond Yields' Role as a Recession Warning Signal
May 2019 by Charles Rotblut, Campbell Harvey
An interview with the professor who developed the yield curve model for forecasting recessions.
May 2019 by Charles Rotblut, Campbell Harvey
An interview with the professor who developed the yield curve model for forecasting recessions.
Follow the Fed, but Be Smart About It
April 2015 by Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Luis Garcia-Feijoo
Small-cap stocks thrive during periods of expansive monetary policy, while returns for large- and small-cap stocks are lower during restrictive periods.
April 2015 by Gerald R. Jensen, Robert R. Johnson, Luis Garcia-Feijoo
Small-cap stocks thrive during periods of expansive monetary policy, while returns for large- and small-cap stocks are lower during restrictive periods.
Which Economic Indicators Matter?
September 2010 by Charles Rotblut, Aaron Smith
An interview with Aaron Smith. Learn which data best gauges the health and the direction of the economy from a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
September 2010 by Charles Rotblut, Aaron Smith
An interview with Aaron Smith. Learn which data best gauges the health and the direction of the economy from a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com.
The Top 10 Economic Indicators: What to Watch and Why
August 2003 by Jenna Brashear
Learn about the U.S.’ top 10 economic indicators and why analyzing them can help highlight the nation’s financial health.
August 2003 by Jenna Brashear
Learn about the U.S.’ top 10 economic indicators and why analyzing them can help highlight the nation’s financial health.